View source for Social cycle theory

{{short description|Type of social theories}}
{{Redirect|Cyclical pattern|other uses|Cycle (disambiguation){{!}}Cycle}}
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{{sociology}}

'''Social cycle theories''' are among the earliest [[social theories]] in [[sociology]]. Unlike the theory of [[social evolutionism]], which views the [[evolution of society]] and [[human history]] as progressing in some new, unique direction(s), sociological cycle theory argues that events and stages of society and history generally repeat themselves in cycles. 

Such a theory does not necessarily imply that there cannot be any [[social progress]]. In the early theory of [[Sima Qian]] and the more recent theories of long-term ("secular") political-demographic cycles,<ref>{{Cite book
|author1-last=Korotayev
|author1-first=Andrey V.
| author2-last=Malkov
| author2-first= Artemy S
| author3-last = Khaltourina
| author3-first= Daria A
| url = https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9c96x0p1
|chapter=4. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends
| title = Introduction to Social Macrodynamics
| pages = 95–133
| year = 2006
| place= University of California Irvine
| publisher= Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences
| series= Social Dynamics and Complexity working paper series 
| chapter-url = https://escholarship.org/content/qt9c96x0p1/qt9c96x0p1.pdf?t=krnbh3
| isbn = 5-484-00559-0
}}</ref> an explicit accounting is made of social progress.

==Historical forerunners==
Interpretation of [[history]] as repeating cycles of Dark and Golden Ages was a common belief among ancient cultures.<ref>{{Cite book|last=Rossides|first=Daniel W.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=TTYAGD7aKBkC&pg=PA69|title=Social Theory: Its Origins, History, and Contemporary Relevance|date=1998|publisher=Rowman & Littlefield|isbn=978-1-882289-50-9|language=en}}</ref> ''Kyklos'' ([[Ancient Greek]]: κύκλος {{IPA|grc|kýklos|}}, "cycle") is a term used by some classical [[Ancient Greece|Greek]] authors to describe what they considered as the cycle of [[government]]s in a society. It was roughly based on the history of Greek [[city-states]] in the same period. The concept of the ''kyklos'' is first elaborated by [[Republic (dialogue)|Plato]], [[Aristotle]], and most extensively [[Polybius]]. They all came up with their own interpretation of the cycle, and possible solutions to break the cycle, since they thought the cycle to be harmful. 

Later writers such as [[Cicero]] and [[Niccolò Machiavelli|Machiavelli]] commented on the ''kyklos''. The more limited cyclical view of history defined as repeating cycles of events was put forward in the academic world in the 19th century in [[historiosophy]] (a branch of [[historiography]]) and is a concept that falls under the category of [[sociology]]. However, [[Polybius]], [[Ibn Khaldun]] (see [[Asabiyyah]]), and [[Giambattista Vico]] can be seen as precursors of this analysis. The ''[[saeculum]]'' was identified in Roman times. In recent times, P. R. Sarkar in his social cycle theory has used this idea to elaborate his interpretation of history. 

=== Plato ===
{{more|Plato's five regimes}}
[[Plato]] describes his cycle of governments in his work ''[[Republic (Plato)|Republic]],'' Book VIII and IX.<ref name="KyklosRepublic">{{cite book|author1=Plato|title=Republic|chapter=VIII, IX|translator-first1=Paul|translator-last1=Shorey|year=1969|publisher=Harvard University Press|url=https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0168}}</ref> He distinguishes [[Plato's five regimes|five forms of government]]: [[aristocracy]], [[timocracy]], [[oligarchy]], [[democracy]], and [[Tyrant|tyranny]], and writes that governments devolve respectively in this order from aristocracy into tyranny. Plato's cycle of governments is linked with his anthropology of the rulers that come with each form of government. This philosophy is intertwined with the way the cycle of governments plays out.<ref name="KyklosPlauche2011">{{cite book|author1=G.A. Plauche|title=The Cycle of Decline of Regimes in Plato's Republic |url=https://gaplauche.com/blog/2011/04/13/the-cycle-of-decline-of-regimes-in-platos-republic/|year=2011}}</ref> 

An aristocracy is ruled by aristocratic people whose rule is guided by their rationality. The decline of aristocracy into timocracy happens when people who are less qualified to rule come to power. Their rule and decision-making is guided by honor. Timocracy devolves into oligarchy as soon as those rulers act in pursuit of wealth. Oligarchy devolves into democracy when the rulers act on behalf of freedom. Lastly, democracy devolves into tyranny if rulers mainly seek power. Plato believes that having a [[philosopher king]], and thus having an aristocratic form of government is the most desirable.<ref name="KyklosPolin1998">{{cite book|author1=R. Polin|title=Plato and Aristotle on Constitutionalism: An Exposition and Reference Source |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MziDDwAAQBAJ&q=cycle+of+government+plato&pg=PT123|year=1977|publisher=Ashgate Publishing|isbn=978-1840143010}}</ref>

=== Polybius ===
According to Polybius, who has the most fully developed version of the ''kyklos'', it rotates through the three basic forms of government: [[democracy]], [[aristocracy]], and [[monarchy]], and the three degenerate forms of each of these governments: [[ochlocracy]], [[oligarchy]], and [[tyranny]]. Originally society is in ochlocracy but the strongest figure emerges and sets up a monarchy. The monarch's descendants, who lack virtue because of their family's power, become [[Despotism|despots]] and the monarchy degenerates into a tyranny.<ref name="KyklosHermans1991"/>

Because of the excesses of the ruler, the tyranny is overthrown by the leading citizens of the state, who set up an aristocracy. They too, quickly forget about virtue, and the state becomes an oligarchy. These oligarchs are overthrown by the people, who set up a democracy. Democracy soon becomes corrupt and degenerates into ochlocracy, beginning the cycle anew. Polybius's concept of the cycle of governments is called ''anacyclosis''.<ref name="KyklosHermans1991"/>

Polybius, in contrast to Aristotle, focuses on the idea of [[mixed government]]: the idea that the ideal government is one that blends elements of monarchy, aristocracy, and democracy. Aristotle mentions this notion but pays little attention to it. Polybius saw the [[Roman Republic]] as the embodiment of this mixed constitution, and this would explain why the Roman Republic was so powerful and why it remained stable for a longer amount of time.<ref name="KyklosHermans1991">{{cite thesis |author1=Hermans |first=M.A. |year=1991 |title=Polybius' Theory of the Anacyclosis of Constitutions |url=https://open.uct.ac.za/server/api/core/bitstreams/993c4f84-db63-4091-891c-4244678e9950/content |degree=Masters |via=University of Cape Town}}</ref> Polybius' full description can be found in Book VI of his ''[[The Histories (Polybius)|Histories]]''.<ref name="KyklosHistories">{{cite book |author1=Polybius |url=https://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus:text:1999.01.0234 |title=The Histories |publisher=Macmillan |year=1889 |translator-last1=Shuckburgh |translator-first1=Evelyn |chapter=VI}}</ref>

=== Cicero ===
[[Cicero]] describes anacyclosis in his philosophical work ''[[De re publica]]''.<ref name= "KykloDeRePublice">{{cite book|author1= Cicero |title=De re publica |translator-first1= C.W |translator-last1= Keyes |year= 1928|url= http://www.attalus.org/info/republic.html}}</ref> His version of the anacyclosis is heavily inspired by Polybius' writings.  Cicero argues, contrary to Polybius, that the Roman state can prevail and will not succumb to the harmful cycle despite its mixed government, as long as the Roman Republic will return to its ancient virtues (''[[mos maiorum]]'').<ref name= "KyklosCicero">{{cite web | first =Aaron L. | last = Beek|title= Cicero Reading Polybius|year= 2011|url= https://www.academia.edu/12413425}}</ref>

=== Machiavelli ===
[[Machiavelli]], writing during the [[Renaissance]], appears to have adopted Polybius' version of the cycle. Machiavelli's adoption of anacyclosis can be seen in Book I, Chapter II of his ''[[Discourses on Livy]]''.<ref name="KyklosDiscourses">{{cite book |author1=Machiavelli |title= Discourses on Livy |year=1883|url= https://archive.org/details/discoursesonthef02machuoft |chapter=I:2}}</ref> Although Machiavelli adopts the idea of the circular structure in which types of governments alternate, he does not accept Polybius' idea that the cycle naturally devolves through the exact same pattern of governments.<ref name= "KyklosMachiavelli">{{cite book| first = Filippo | last = Del Lucchese|title=The Political Philosophy of Niccolò Machiavelli|year=2015|publisher= Edinburgh University Press |pages=32–34|isbn= 978-1-47440429-7 |url= https://books.google.com/books?id=8OckDQAAQBAJ&pg=PA32}}</ref>

==19th and 20th century theories==
[[Thomas Carlyle]] conceived of history as though it were a [[Phoenix (mythology)|phoenix]], growing and dying in stages akin to the seasons. He saw the [[French Revolution]] as the ashes or winter of European [[Civilization|civilisation]], and that it would necessarily build out of the rubble.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Cowlishaw |first=Brian |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=8Nvdx-4-CzoC |title=The Carlyle Encyclopedia |publisher=[[Fairleigh Dickinson University Press]] |year=2004 |isbn=978-0-8386-3792-0 |editor-last=Cumming |editor-first=Mark |location=Madison and Teaneck, NJ |pages=375 |chapter=Phoenix |url-access=limited}}</ref> 

[[Russia]]n philosopher [[Nikolai Danilewski]] in ''Rossiia i Evropa'' (1869), differentiated between various smaller civilizations (Egyptian, Chinese, Persian, Greek, Roman, German, and Slav, among others). He wrote that each civilization has a life cycle, and by the end of the 19th century the Roman-German civilization was in decline, while the Slav civilization was approaching its [[Golden Age]]. A similar theory was put forward by [[Oswald Spengler]], who in his ''[[The Decline of the West|Der Untergang des Abendlandes]]'' (1918) also argued that the [[western world|Western civilization]] had entered its final phase of development and its decline was inevitable.

The first social cycle theory in sociology was created by [[Italy|Italian]] sociologist and economist [[Vilfredo Pareto]] in his {{Lang|it|Trattato di Sociologia Generale}} (1916). He centered his theory on the concept of an [[elite]] [[social class]], which he divided into cunning 'foxes' and violent 'lions'. In his view of society, the [[power (sociology)|power]] constantly passes from the 'foxes' to the 'lions' and vice versa.

Sociological cycle theory was also developed by [[Pitirim A. Sorokin]] in his ''Social and Cultural Dynamics'' (1937, 1943). He classified societies according to their 'cultural mentality', which can be ideational (reality is spiritual), sensate (reality is material), or idealistic (a synthesis of the two). He interpreted the contemporary West as a sensate civilization dedicated to technological progress, and prophesied its fall into decadence and the emergence of a new ideational or idealistic era.

[[Alexandre Deulofeu]] developed a mathematical model of social cycles, that he claimed fit historical facts. He argued that civilizations and empires go through cycles in his book ''Mathematics of History'', written in [[Catalan language|Catalan]], published in 1951. He claims that each civilization passes through a minimum of three 1,700-year cycles. As part of civilizations, empires have an average lifespan of 550 years. He stated that by knowing the nature of these cycles, it could be possible to modify the cycles in such a way that change could be peaceful, instead of leading to war. Deulofeu believed he had found the origin of [[Romanesque art]], during the 9th century, in an area between [[Empordà]] and [[Roussillon]], which he argued was the cradle of the second cycle of western European civilization.

==Literary expressions==

Much of [[Apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic fiction|post-apocalyptic fiction]] depicts various kinds of cyclical history, with depictions of civilization collapsing and being slowly built up again to collapse again and so on.

An early example is [[Anatole France]]'s 1908 [[satire|satirical]] novel ''Penguin Island'' ({{langx|fr|L'Île des Pingouins}}) which traces the history of Penguinia—a thinly disguised analogue of France—from medieval times to the modern times and into a future of a monstrous super-city—which eventually collapses. This is followed by a renewed Feudalism and agrarian society, and a gradual building up of increasingly advanced civilization—culminating with a new monstrous super-city which would eventually collapse again, and so on.

A later example is [[Walter M. Miller Jr.]]'s ''[[A Canticle for Leibowitz]]'', which begins in the aftermath of a devastating [[nuclear war]], with the [[Catholic Church]] seeking to preserve a remnant of old texts, as it did in the historical Early Middle Ages, and ends with a new civilization, built up over two thousand years, once again destroying itself in a nuclear war. A new group of Catholic clergy again set out to preserve a remnant of civilized knowledge.

In the future depicted in ''[[October the First Is Too Late]]'', a 1966 [[science fiction]] novel by [[astrophysicist]] [[Fred Hoyle]], the protagonists fly over where they expected to see the United States, but see no sign of urban civilization. At first assuming they were in the pre-1750 past, they later find it was a future time. Humanity is doomed to go through repeated cycles of industrialization, overpopulation, collapse—followed by rebuilding, and then again industrialization, overpopulation and collapse and so on, over and over again. In the far future, a civilization which is aware of this history no longer wants progress.

==Contemporary theories==
{{Confusing|section|date=March 2021}}
One of the most important recent findings in the study of the long-term dynamic social processes was the discovery of the political-demographic cycles as a basic feature of the dynamics of complex [[agrarian system]]s.

The presence of political-demographic cycles in the pre-modern history of [[Europe]] and [[China]], and in [[chiefdom]] level societies worldwide has been known for quite a long time,<ref>E.g., [[Michael Postan|Postan]] 1950, 1973; [[Marshall Sahlins|Sahlins]] 1963; Abel 1974, 1980; [[Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie|Ladurie]] 1974; Hodder 1978; [[Fernand Braudel|Braudel]] 1973; Chao 1986; H. T. Wright 1984; Cameron 1989; [[Jack Goldstone|Goldstone]] 1991; Kul'pin 1990; [[David G. Anderson|Anderson]] 1994; Mugruzin 1986, 1994, etc.</ref> and already in the 1980s more or less developed [[mathematical models]] of demographic cycles started to be produced (first of all for Chinese "[[dynastic cycle]]s") (Usher 1989). At the moment{{When|date=March 2021}} there are a considerable number of such models (Chu and Lee 1994; Nefedov 1999, 2002, 2003, 2004; S. Malkov, Kovalev, and A. Malkov 2000; S. Malkov and A. Malkov 2000; Malkov and Sergeev 2002, 2004a, 2004b; Malkov et al. 2002; Malkov 2002, 2003, 2004; [[Peter Turchin|Turchin]] 2003, 2005a; [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev]] et al. 2006).

=== Long cycle theory ===

[[George Modelski]], who presented his ideas in the book ''Long Cycles in World Politics'' (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. Long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.

Long cycles, or long waves, offer perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with [[Simon Kuznets]]' idea of [[long-cycles]], or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987.</ref>

The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands."<ref>Jimmy Myers.  "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War."  ''St. Joseph News-Press.'' 2 Mar 2007.</ref> Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 102</ref>

Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is [[anarchy]].<ref>Mark Rupert.  "Hegemonic Stability Theory.  {{cite web |url=http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/merupert/Teaching/Hegemonic%20Stability%20Theory.htm |title=Hegemonic Stability Theory |access-date=2010-01-11 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021214000422/http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/merupert/Teaching/Hegemonic%20Stability%20Theory.htm |archive-date=2002-12-14 }}</ref> Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger [[global system cycle]]. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants", anarchy does not play a role; long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.</ref>

Modelski used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.

Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic [[Kondratieff Waves]] (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.

In 1988, [[Joshua S Goldstein]] advanced the concept of the political midlife crisis in his book on "[[Long Cycle Theory]]", ''Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age'',<ref name=goldstein>{{citation |first=Joshua |last= Goldstein |author-link=Joshua S Goldstein |title=Long Cycles: Prosperity and War in the Modern Age |url=http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm |publisher= Yale University Press |year=1988}}</ref>{{page needed|date=October 2017}} which offers four examples of the process:

*The [[British Empire]] and the [[Crimean War]] (1853–1856): A century after Britain's successful launch of the [[Industrial Revolution]], and following the subsequent British railway boom of 1815–1853, Britain, in the [[Crimean War]], attacked the [[Russian Empire]], which was perceived as a threat to [[Company rule in India|British India]] and to eastern Mediterranean trade routes to India. The Crimean War highlighted the poor state of the [[British Army]], which were then addressed, and Britain concentrated on colonial expansion and took no further part in European wars until the outbreak of [[World War I]] in 1914.
*The [[German Empire]] and [[World War I]] (1914–1918): Under Chancellor [[Otto von Bismarck]], Germany had been unified between 1864 and 1871, and then had seen 40 years' rapid industrial, military, and colonial expansion. In 1914 the [[Schlieffen Plan]] for conquering [[French Third Republic|France]] in eight weeks was to have been followed by the subjugation of the [[Russian Empire]], leaving Germany the master of ''[[Mitteleuropa]]'' ([[Central Europe]]). In the event, France, [[United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland|Britain]], Russia, and the [[United States]] fought Germany to a standstill, to defeat, and to a humiliating peace settlement at [[Versailles Treaty|Versailles]] (1919) and the establishment of Germany's unstable [[Weimar Republic]] (1919–1933), in a prelude to [[World War II]].
*The [[Soviet Union]] and the [[Cuban Missile Crisis]] (1962): The Soviet Union had industrialised rapidly under [[Joseph Stalin]] and, following World War II, had become a rival nuclear [[superpower]] to the [[United States]]. In 1962 Soviet Premier [[Nikita Khrushchev]], intent on securing strategic parity with the United States, covertly, with the support of [[Fidel Castro]], shipped nuclear missiles to Castro's [[Cuba under Fidel Castro|Cuba]], 70 miles from the US state of [[Florida]]. US President [[John F. Kennedy]] blockaded (the term "quarantined" being used because a blockade is an act of war), the island of Cuba and negotiated the Soviet missiles' removal from Cuba (in exchange for the subsequent removal of US missiles from Turkey).{{vague|date=December 2017}}
*The [[United States]] and the [[Vietnam War]] (1955–1975): During World War II and the ensuing postwar period, the United States had greatly expanded its military capacities and [[military-industrial complex|industries]]. After France, supported financially by the US, had been defeated in Vietnam in 1954 and that country had been temporarily split into [[North Vietnam|North]] and [[South Vietnam]] under the 1954 [[1954 Geneva Conference|Geneva Accords]]; and when war had broken out between the North and South following South Vietnam President [[Ngo Dinh Diem]]'s refusal to permit all-Vietnam elections in 1956 as stipulated in the Geneva Accords, the ideologically [[Anti-communism|anti-communist]] United States supported South Vietnam with materiel in a [[Cold War]] [[proxy war]] and by degrees allowed itself to be drawn into South Vietnam's losing struggle against communist North Vietnam and the [[Viet Cong]] acting in South Vietnam. Ultimately, following the defeat of South Vietnam and the United States, the US's governing belief that South Vietnam's defeat would result in all of remaining [[Mainland Southeast Asia]] "going communist" (as proclaimed by the US's "[[domino theory]]"), proved erroneous.<ref name=goldstein/>{{page needed|date=October 2017}}

=== Kondratiev waves ===
{{Main|Kondratiev wave}}

In [[pseudoeconomics|economics]], [[Kondratiev wave|Kondratiev waves]], also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle, are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern [[world economy]].<ref>The term ''long wave'' originated from a poor early translation of ''long cycle'' from Russian to German. Freeman, Chris; Louçã, Francisco (2001) pp 70</ref> It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years. The [[Economic cycle|cycles]] have alternating intervals of high sectoral [[Economic growth|growth]] and intervals of relatively slow growth.<ref name ="Kororayev_et_al">{{Cite journal|last1=Korotayev|first1=Andrey V.|last2=Tsirel|first2=Sergey V.|date=2010-01-07|title=A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis|url=https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp|journal=Structure and Dynamics|language=en|volume=4|issue=1|doi=10.5070/SD941003306|doi-access=free}}</ref>

Such theories are dismissed by most economists on the basis of [[econometrics|econometric]] analysis, which has found that recessions are essentially random events, and the probability of a recession does not show any kind of pattern across time.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Rudebusch |first1=Glenn D. |title=Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age? |url=https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2016/february/will-economic-recovery-die-of-old-age/ |website=FRBSF Economic Letter |date=4 February 2016 |publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco}}</ref> Despite frequent use of the term [[business cycles]] to refer to changes in an economy around its [[Linear trend estimation|trend line]], the phrase is considered a [[misnomer]]. It is widely agreed that fluctuations in economic activity do not exhibit any kind of predictable repetition over time, and the appearance of cycles is a result of [[pareidolia]].<ref>Drautzburg, Thorsten. "Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles." Economic Insights 4, no. 1 (2019): 1-8.</ref><ref>Slutzky, Eugen. "The summation of random causes as the source of cyclic processes." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1937): 105-146.</ref><ref>Chatterjee, Satyajit. "From cycles to shocks: Progress in business cycle theory." Business Review 3 (2000): 27-37.</ref>

=== Secular cycles theory ===

Recently the most important contributions to the development of the [[mathematical]] models of long-term ("secular") sociodemographic cycles have been made by Sergey Nefedov, [[Peter Turchin]], [[Andrey Korotayev]], and Sergey Malkov.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Клиодинамика - математические методы в истории|url=https://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=281&Itemid=1|access-date=2023-01-20|website=cliodynamics.ru}}</ref> What is important is that on the basis of their models Nefedov, Turchin and Malkov have managed to demonstrate that sociodemographic cycles were a basic feature of complex agrarian systems, and not a specifically Chinese or European phenomenon.

The basic logic of these models is as follows:
* After the population reaches the ceiling of the [[carrying capacity]] of land, its growth rate declines toward near-zero values.
* The system experiences significant stress with decline in the living standards of the common population, increasing the severity of [[famine]]s, growing rebellions etc.
* As has been shown by Nefedov, most complex agrarian systems had considerable reserves for stability, however, within 50–150 years these reserves were usually exhausted and the [[system]] experienced a [[demographic]] collapse (a [[Malthusian catastrophe]]), when increasingly severe famines, [[epidemics]], increasing internal [[war]]fare and other disasters led to a considerable decline of [[population]].
* As a result of this collapse, free resources became available, per capita production and consumption considerably increased, the [[population growth]] resumed and a new sociodemographic cycle started.
It has become possible to model these dynamics mathematically in a rather effective way. Note that the modern theories of political-demographic cycles do not deny the presence of trend dynamics and attempt at the study of the interaction between cyclical and trend components of historical dynamics.

The models have two main phases, each with two subphases.<ref>{{cite book | last1 = Turchin | first1 = Peter | last2 = Nefedov | first2 = Sergei | title = Secular Cycles | publisher = Princeton University Press | date = 2009 | isbn = 9781400830688}} table adapted from [http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8904.pdf First Chapter] Table 1.1</ref>
* Integrative phase
** Expansion (growth)
** Stagflation (compression)
* Disintegrative phase
** Crisis phase (state breakdown)
** Depression / intercycle
An intercycle is where a functioning state collapses and takes some time to rebuild.
{| class="wikitable"
|+ Characteristic features of structural-demographic phases
|-
! rowspan="2" | Feature !! colspan="2" | Integrative phase !! colspan="2" | Disintegrative phase
|-
! Expansion phase (growth) !! Stagflation phase (compression) !! Crisis phase (state breakdown) !! Depression / Intercycle
|-
| Population || Increases || Slow increase || Decreases || Slow decrease
|-
| Elites || Low population and consumption || Increasing population and competition and consumption || High population, conflicts, high inequality || Reduction of population, downward mobility, reduced consumption
|-
| State strength and collective solidarity || Increasing || High but decreasing || Collapse || Attempts at rebuilding
|-
| Sociopolitical instability || Low || Increasing || High || Decreasing
|}
Disintegrative phases typically do not have continuous disorder, but instead periods of strife alternating with relatively peaceful periods. This alternation typically has a period of about two human generation times (40 – 60 years), and Turchin calls it a "fathers and sons" cycle.

=== Fourth Turning theory ===
{{Main|Strauss–Howe generational theory}}

The [[Strauss–Howe generational theory]], also known as the Fourth Turning theory or simply the Fourth Turning, which was created by authors [[William Strauss]] and [[Neil Howe]], describes a theorized recurring [[generation]] cycle in [[American history]]. According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes). Each generational persona unleashes a new era, called a turning, in which a new social, political, and economic climate exists. Turnings tend to last around 20–22 years. 

They are part of a larger cyclical "[[saeculum]]", a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 90 years, although some ''saecula'' have lasted longer. The theory states that after every saeculum, a [[crisis]] recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and [[communitarian]] values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and [[individualism]], which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

=== Schlesinger liberal-conservative cycles of United States history ===
{{Main|Cyclical theory (United States history)}}

The [[cyclical theory (United States history)]]<ref name="ASSr">{{cite book |last=Schlesinger |first=Arthur Sr. |date=1949 |title=Paths to the Present |publisher=Macmillan}}</ref><ref name="ASJr">{{cite book |last=Schlesinger |first=Arthur Jr. |date=1999 |title=The Cycles of American History |publisher=Houghton Mifflin Harcourt}}</ref><ref name="CAS">{{Cite web|url=https://www.austincc.edu/lpatrick/his2341/cycles.html|title=CYCLES OF AMERICAN HISTORY|website=austincc.edu}}</ref><ref name="JBB">{{cite journal |last1=Brown |first1=Jerald B.|date=June 1992 |title=The Wave Theory of American Social Movements |journal=City & Society |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=26–45 |doi=10.1525/city.1992.6.1.26}}</ref> is a theory of US history developed by [[Arthur M. Schlesinger Sr.]] and [[Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr.]] It states that US history alternates between two kinds of phases:
* Liberal, increasing democracy, public purpose, human rights, concern with the wrongs of the many
* Conservative, containing democracy, private interest, property rights, concern with the rights of the few
Each kind of phase generates the other. Liberal phases generate conservative phases from activism burnout, and conservative phases generate liberal phases from accumulation of unsolved problems.

=== Huntington's creedal-passion episodes of United States history ===

Historian [[Samuel P. Huntington]] has proposed that American history has had several bursts of "creedal passion" roughly every 60 years.<ref name="DRNT">{{cite journal |last1=Resnick |first1=David |last2=Thomas |first2=Norman C. |date=Autumn 1990 |title=Cycling through American Politics |journal=Polity |volume=23 |issue=1 |pages=1–21|jstor=3235140 |doi=10.2307/3235140 |s2cid=147647668 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=Huntington |first=Samuel P. |date=1981 |title=American Politics: The Promise of Disharmony |publisher=Belknap Press}}</ref><ref name="VoxCP">{{Cite web|last=Drutman|first=Lee|date=2016-01-06|title=This 1981 book eerily predicted today's distrustful and angry political mood|url=https://www.vox.com/polyarchy/2016/1/6/10725086/promise-of-disharmony|access-date=2023-01-20|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref> These are efforts to bring American government closer to the "American creed" of being "egalitarian, participatory, open, noncoercive, and responsive to the demands of individuals and groups."

=== United States party systems ===

The United States has had six [[Party system#United States|party system]]s over its history. Each one is a characteristic platform and set of constituencies of each of the two major parties. A new party system emerges from a burst of reform, and in some cases, the disintegration of a party in the previous system (1st: Federalist, 2nd: Whig).

=== Skowronek United States regimes and presidency types ===

Political scientist [[Stephen Skowronek]] has proposed that American history has gone through several regimes, with four main types of presidencies.<ref name="DRNT" /><ref>{{Cite web|title=The Presidency in the Political Order|url=https://spot.colorado.edu/~mcguire/skow2|access-date=2023-01-20|website=spot.colorado.edu}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.thenation.com/article/what-time-is-it-heres-what-the-2016-election-tells-us-about-obama-trump-and-what-comes-next/|title=What Time Is It? Here's What the 2016 Election Tells Us About Obama, Trump, and What Comes Next &#124; The Nation|access-date=2020-11-16|archive-date=2020-01-06|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200106171756/https://www.thenation.com/article/what-time-is-it-heres-what-the-2016-election-tells-us-about-obama-trump-and-what-comes-next/|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/15/opinion/trump-history-presidents.html|title=Opinion &#124; The Fight Over How Trump Fits in With the Other 44 Presidents - ''The New York Times''|website=[[The New York Times]] }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|title=Is Trump the last gasp of Reagan's Republican Party?|language=en-US|newspaper=Washington Post|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/11/is-trump-the-last-gasp-of-reagans-republican-party/|access-date=2023-01-20|issn=0190-8286}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ellis|first=Richard J.|date=1995|title=Review of The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush|url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/3124393|journal=Journal of the Early Republic|volume=15|issue=1|pages=128–130|doi=10.2307/3124393|jstor=3124393 |issn=0275-1275|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Hoekstra|first=Douglas J.|date=1999|title=The Politics of Politics: Skowronek and Presidential Research|url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/27552023|journal=Presidential Studies Quarterly|volume=29|issue=3|pages=657–671|doi=10.1111/j.0268-2141.2003.00054.x |jstor=27552023 |issn=0360-4918|url-access=subscription}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Adler|first=William|date=2016-12-19|title=Donald Trump will follow a failed political transformation, just like Benjamin Harrison|url=https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2016/12/19/14010172/trump-transformation-harrison|access-date=2023-01-20|website=Vox|language=en}}</ref> Each regime has a dominant party and an opposition party. The President involved in starting it is a "reconstructive" one, and that President's successors in the dominant party are "articulating" ones. However, opposition-party Presidents are often elected, "preemptive" ones. A regime ends with having a President or two from its dominant party, a "disjunctive" President.

=== Klingberg cycles of United States foreign policy ===

Frank Klingberg has proposed a cyclic theory of US foreign policy.<ref name="ASJr" /><ref name="FJK">{{cite journal |last1=Klingberg |first1=Frank J. |date=January 1952 |title=The Historical Alternation of Moods in American Foreign Policy |journal=World Politics |volume=4 |issue=2 |pages=239–273 |doi=10.2307/2009047|jstor=2009047 |s2cid=156295082 }}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last=Holmes |first=Jack E. |date=1985 |title=The Mood/Interest Theory of American Foreign Policy |publisher=The University Press of Kentucky}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Pollins |first1=Brian M. |last2=Schweller |first2=Randall L. |date=April 1999 |title=Linking the Levels: The Long Wave and Shifts in U.S. Foreign Policy, 1790-1993 |url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271799688 |journal=American Journal of Political Science |volume=43 |issue=2 |pages=431–464|doi=10.2307/2991801 |jstor=2991801 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=http://citation.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/1/2/4/2/pages312428/p312428-7.php |title=(Page 7 of 56) - Long-Term US Foreign Policy Moods and Involvement in System Wars: Is There Any Way to Reduce the Odds? authored by Lawrence, Colin., Holmes, Jack., Johnson, Lauren. and Aardema, Sara. |access-date=2019-10-23 |archive-date=2020-01-23 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200123211411/http://citation.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/3/1/2/4/2/pages312428/p312428-7.php |url-status=dead }}</ref> It states that the US alternates between extroverted phases, phases involving military adventures, challenging other nations, and annexing territory, and introverted phases, phases with the absence of these activities.

== See also ==
* [[Cyclic model]] (cosmology)
* [[Historic recurrence]]
* [[List of cycles]]
* [[Revolutionary wave]]
* [[Societal collapse]]
* [[State collapse]]

==References==
{{reflist}}

==Further reading==
* Parvini, N. (2023). ''The Prophets of Doom.'' Andrews UK Limited. 
* Chu, C. Y. C., and R. D. Lee. (1994) Famine, Revolt, and the Dynastic Cycle: Population Dynamics in Historic China. ''Journal of Population Economics'' 7: 351–78.
* [[Alexandre Deulofeu]] (1967) La Matemàtica de la Història (Mathematics of History), Figueres, Editorial Emporitana, 1967.
* Fischer, David Hackett (1996). The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press. {{ISBN|019512121X}} for 1999 paperback reprint.
* [[Johan Galtung]] and [[Sohail Inayatullah]], Macrohistory and Macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social, and Civilizational Change, Praeger Publishers, 1997, {{ISBN|0-275-95755-1}}.
* [[Sohail Inayatullah]], Understanding P. R. Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge, Brill Academic Publishers, 2002, {{ISBN|90-04-12842-5}}.
* [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev A.]], Malkov A., & [[Khaltourina D.]] (2006) [https://www.academia.edu/22215616/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends.''] Moscow: URSS. {{ISBN|5-484-00559-0}}. [http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9c96x0p1 Chapter 4].
* [[Andrey Korotayev|Korotayev, A.]] & Khaltourina D. (2006) [https://www.academia.edu/27503953/Introduction_to_Social_Macrodynamics_Secular_Cycles_and_Millennial_Trends_in_Africa ''Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends in Africa.''] Moscow: URSS. {{ISBN|5-484-00560-4}}
* Nefedov, S. A. (2003). [https://escholarship.org/uc/item/8qf580j5 A Theory of Demographic Cycles and the Social Evolution of Ancient and Medieval Oriental Societies]. ''Oriens'' 3: 5–22.
* Nefedov, S. A. (2004). A Model of Demographic Cycles in Traditional Societies: The Case of Ancient China. ''[[Social Evolution & History]]'' 3(1): 69–80.
* [[Michael Postan|Postan, M. M.]] (1973). ''Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of the Medieval Economy''. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
* [[Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar]] (1967). Human Society-2, Ananda Marga Publications, Anandanagar, P.O. Baglata, Dist. Purulia, West Bengal, India.
* [[Tainter, Joseph]] (1988). ''The Collapse of Complex Civilizations.'' Cambridge University Press.
* [[Peter Turchin|Turchin, P.]] (2003) ''Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall''. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
* [[Peter Turchin|Turchin, P.]] (2005). Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States. ''Structure & Dynamics'' 1 [https://escholarship.org/uc/item/0d17g8g9 Dynamical Feedbacks between Population Growth and Sociopolitical Instability in Agrarian States].
* [[Peter Turchin|Turchin, P.]], et al., eds. (2007). [https://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&page=Book&id=53185&lang=en&blang=en&list=Found History & Mathematics: Historical Dynamics and Development of Complex Societies.] Moscow: KomKniga. {{ISBN|5-484-01002-0}}
*[https://www.academia.edu/24888636/Trends_and_Cycles ''Trends and Cycles'', Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2014].
* Usher, D. (1989). The Dynastic Cycle and the Stationary State. ''The American Economic Review'' 79: 1031–44.
* [[Weiss, Volkmar]] (2007). "[https://web.archive.org/web/20080321025407/http://www.volkmar-weiss.de/cycle.html The population cycle drives human history - from a eugenic phase into a dysgenic phase and eventual collapse.]" ''The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies'' 32: 327-358. 
* [[Weiss, Volkmar]] (2020). IQ Means Inequality: The Population Cycle that Drives Human History. KDP. {{ISBN|979-8608184406}}.

==External links==
* [https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9c96x0p1 Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20110105051549/http://www.oeaw.ac.at/byzanz/repository/Preiser_WorkingPapersIV_ComplexCrisis.pdf Complex historical dynamics of crisis: the case of Byzantium (with an extensive discussion of the concept of secular cycles from the point of view of medieval studies)]

{{More footnotes|date=March 2009}}

[[Category:Cyclical theories| ]]
[[Category:Sociological theories]]
[[Category:Theories of history]]